Turkey: Central bank likely to remain on hold in May given high inflation risks

In line with our expectations and with market consensus, April inflation stood at 1.68%, pulling annual CPI inflation further up to 17.1% from 16.2% a month ago due to a weaker base. While core inflation remain elevated at about 17.8% year-on-year, it has shown some improvement on a seasonally adjusted basis (3m-ma, annualised) from its peak in January. In the breakdown, we see 1) goods inflation at 18.9%, the highest since mid-2019, up from 17.8% a month ago attributable to energy, clothing and core goods along with the base effects from the last year and 2) services inflation at 13.1% inching up further driven by … (full story)

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