The dollar’s decline accelerated and broadened last week. It convincingly broke out of its recent ranges. Tactically, we did not expect the sustained break ahead of the December 10 ECB meeting, where the central bank that does not pre-commit pre-committed to easing policy. The recent string of economic data suggests that while the US activity has moderated, the recovery continues, Japan and Europe maybe experiencing a new contraction. Strategically, we have been arguing that the third big dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods is over. We began the year, noting that the policy mix was less supportive. At the … (full story)
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