Is Stagflation Back?

The constraint on global growth this year has evolved from the supply of vaccines to the supply of nearly everything else. Raw materials, intermediate goods including semiconductors, and even labor seem to be in short supply. This environment risks a stall in output, earnings and job growth while pushing prices higher. Commodity prices are soaring at a pace not seen since the Carter administration. Although it’s an important new risk to the current economy and markets, stagflation—a term applied to the high inflation/low growth economic environment of the 1970s—is not our base case, thanks to the rise … (full story)

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