FX year ahead 2021: Too much US dollar pessimism?

It has been year of absolute chaos, but hopefully 2021 will be much calmer as the global economy heals its wounds. The overwhelming consensus in the FX arena is for the US dollar to sink further as the reflation trade dominates, lifting all other boats. The ‘catch’ is that much of this weakness may be baked in already. The story for the euro is not attractive either. While dollar weakness could dominate early on and push euro/dollar a little higher, the euro may not fare as well against other currencies. The wild card is the British pound, whose fate hangs on the Brexit endgame. What a year. Countries went into … (full story)

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