We see EURUSD peaking in the first half of 2021 as the USD yield curve is still alive. The Fed could be tempted to “taper” formally already this year and a hike in 2022 is clearly not out of the question. The ECB will remain accommodative. Highlights: Strong growth and inflation already during H1-2021 EUR/USD could peak around 1.25-1.27 already during the first half of this year The USD curve has more steepening potential, while the potential is very modest in the EUR curve The Fed is not as dovish as anticipated and a taper process could be launched already this summer Global: A growth “ketchup effect” and … (full story)


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