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On Monday, we looked at a descending channel on EURUSD that was likely to send the pair higher. However, buyers still had work to do. The euro was trading in the middle of that channel, and it was unclear whether we’d get a retest of channel resistance or 1.1150. Fast forward to today, and the EURUSD is leaning on channel resistance near 1.1290. That’s the level that buyers need to break to send prices higher. Just keep in mind that we need a daily close (5 pm EST) above 1.1290 to confirm the breakout. Until then, this consolidation will continue. If [...]
The USD Index has had a rollercoaster week. After suffering from a depressing month in June, it has started July on a shaky note but seems to have found some relief from the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. US unemployment rate fell from 13.3% to 11.1%, along with a positive employment change from 2699K in May to 4800K in June. Initial jobless claims fell marginally, but the lift in jobs numbers was enough to increase bids on the US Dollar and lift the USD Index on the day. However, significant headwinds remain, as the coronavirus infection rate continues to rise all across [...]
I wrote a couple of weeks ago that I was highly – and caustically – sceptical of the forecast of a Goldman Sachs strategist who saw the USD rise to 7.25 against the Chinese currency. Currency pairs don't always follow a path of relative economic performance. The Japanese yen, notoriously, tends to rise when the Japanese economy underperforms and to rise sharply when the Japanese economy tanks seriously. The reason: Japan has the world's largest amount of foreign assets of any nations and Japanese firms repatriate portions of those assets as needed, driving up the yen. Similar distortions of "strong economy [...]
The June jobs report showed payrolls rose 4.8mn, well above the 3.23mn consensus figure while May’s payrolls gain was revised up to 2.699mn from 2.51mn. Fantastic. It shows how the re-openings have allowed businesses to get into gear and bring workers back. Leisure and hospitality was the biggest contributor, jumping 2.088mn, with retail up 740k, but there were gains everywhere including 903k for trade and transport and 568k for education and healthcare. Ignore the unemployment rate and wage data The household survey shows the unemployment rate dropping further to 11.1% from 13.3%, having peaked at 14.7%. ... (full story)
Colin Huang’s ascent is one for the history books: In just six months, his fortune swelled by US$25 billion -- one of the biggest gains among the world’s richest people. His Pinduoduo Inc., a Groupon-like shopping app he founded in 2015, has become China’s third-largest e-commerce platform, with a market value of more than US$100 billion. In the first quarter, as the coronavirus pandemic caused most of the nation’s economy to grind to a halt, PDD’s active users surged 68 per cent and revenue jumped 44 per cent, the company said in May. Now Huang, who has overseen the firm as [...]
No sooner did we report that Tesla "beat" its delivery estimates on Thursday morning by producing 4.8% less cars than last year, even with the addition of Shanghai and the Model Y - and no sooner did another block of $1500 September 2020 calls totaling more than $5 million go off, helping ramp Tesla's stock higher - than outspoken CEO Elon Musk himself took to Twitter for a victory lap. By which we mean spitting in the faces of both the Securities and Exchange Commission and short sellers, despite that Musk remains enjoined by a settlement with the SEC to pre-clear [...]